Kathmandu, Apr. 26
The economy of the country is expected to grow at the rate of 6.81 per
cent this fiscal year.
After the calculation of the economic activities of the first nine
months of the current fiscal year 2018/19, it is estimated that the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) will go up by 6.81 per cent, said the Central Bureau of
Statistics (CBS), a statistical agency under the National Planning Commission
(NPC).
Nepal is embarking on high growth trajectory for the last three
consecutive years with 6.3 per cent in the last fiscal 2017/18 and 7.74 in
2016/17.
According to the CBS, the size of national economy will reach Rs. 3.46
trillion by the end of this fiscal year from last year's Rs. 3.03 trillion.
In 2015/16, the devastating earthquake and months-long Indian blockade
at the southern border caused the economy sunk as low as 0.1 per cent. It has
rebounded since then.
Contribution of primary sector – including agriculture and forestry,
fisheries, mines and excavation – to the GDP will be 27.59 per cent with 5.10
per cent value addition.
It contributed about 28.67 per cent to the economy in the last fiscal
2017/19.
"Favourable weather has resulted in significant improvement in
agricultural yield and the reconstruction has mobilised more forest products.
Similarly, the mines sector has witnessed increment in product," said the
CBS.
Likewise, the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and
construction industries, electricity, gas and water, will contribute 14.60 per
cent to the economy. This sector will witness about 8.10 per cent gross value
addition against the last year's contribution.
The industry sector had about 14.31 per cent contribution to the economy
last year.
Similarly, the tertiary or the service sector will have 57.81 per cent
share in the economy this year. It will have 7.29 per cent value addition.
Last year, it had 57.01 per cent contribution to the economy.
The tertiary sector includes wholesale and retail trade, hotels and
restaurants, transport, storage and communications, financial intermediation,
real estate, renting and business activities, public administration and
defense, education, health and social work.
Karnali lags behind
According to the provincial calculations, State 3 has the largest
contribution to the national economy while Karnali has the least.
State 3 has 35.44 per cent share in the national GDP while Karnali has
just 4 per cent contribution.
Likewise, Province 1 has 16.11 per cent share to
the country's economy, Province 5 has 14.26 per cent, Province 2 has 13.59 per
cent, Gandaki 9.38 and Sudurpaschim 7.22 per cent.
Provincial economic growth
rate
Province
|
Growth Rate
|
Size of Economy
(Rs. in billion)
|
Province 1
|
6.49
|
505.84
|
Province 2
|
6.53
|
444.49
|
Province 3
|
7.04
|
1432.75
|
Gandaki
|
7.06
|
288.20
|
Province 5
|
7.37
|
452.79
|
Karnali
|
5.68
|
119.25
|
Sudurpaschim
|
6.25
|
220.95
|
Source: CBS
Not only in its share to the national GDP, Karnali has the least growth
rate with 5.68 per cent and smallest size of economy with Rs. 119.25 billion.
Economy of Province 3 is about Rs. 1.43 trillion.
Per capita income up
The per capita income (PCI) has witnessed an increase of US $ 36 this
year and reached $1034.
The figure is higher than the estimation of the NPC in its 14th
Periodic Plan where the planning body has set the PCI target at $ 1012. To
graduate Nepal to the developing country from its current Least Developed
Country (LDC) status, it needs $1500 PCI. The country aims to graduate by 2022.
According to the CBS, the gross domestic savings has been continuously
increasing from 2015/16 when the country could save only 4.07 per cent of its
GDP but it will reach 20.48 per cent in the current fiscal.
The domestic saving was about 17.81 per cent of the GDP last year.
Increased domestic saving will boost more investment and help in capital
formation.
The export has slumped to just 9.05 per cent of the GDP while import
reached about 51 per cent of the GDP. It was 40.75 per cent five years ago.
Similarly, the workers remittance has again reached 26.24 per cent equivalent to the GDP from last
year's 24.91 per cent.
Published in The Rising Nepal daily on 27 April 2019.