Bagmati alone to contribute 38% to national economy
Bagmati’s per capita GDP to
remain at US$ 2,644 while Madhes to stay at US$934
Kathmandu, May 20
Among the seven provinces of
Nepal, Bagmati alone is estimated to contribute more than one-third (36.7 per
cent) to the national economy in the current Fiscal Year 2025/26.
According to the statistics
published by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday, there is a stark
disparity among the provinces in terms of the size of economy, contribution to
the national economy and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Bagmati is projected to
contribute Rs. 2.42 trillion to the national economy, which is estimated to
reach Rs. 6.6 trillion by the end of this year.
Karnali will make a nominal
contribution with just 4.2 per cent or Rs. 277 billion, while Sudurpaschim’s input
will stand at Rs. 464 billion (7 per cent).
Likewise, Koshi will contribute Rs.
1.043 trillion (15.8 per cent), Lumbini Rs. 937 billion (14.2 per cent), Madhes
Rs. 863 billion (13.1 per cent), and Gandaki Rs. 593 billion (9.0 per cent).
According to preliminary
estimates for FY 2025/26, Bagmati is expected to record the growth rate of 5.40
per cent – the highest annual growth rate in provincial GDP based on consumer
prices, followed by Gandaki Province at 5.01 per cent.
Similarly, Madhes is projected to
have the lowest annual growth rate, at 1.31 per cent, according to the NSO.
“While the national annual GDP
growth rate, measured at constant consumers’ prices, is preliminarily estimated
at 3.85 per cent, only Bagmati and Gandaki provinces are expected to record
growth rates higher than the national average,” read a statement from the
Office.
Other provinces are projected to
grow at rates below the national average – Sudurpaschim 3.28 per cent; Koshi
3.13 per cent; Lumbini 2.87 per cent; and Karnali 2.94 per cent. This year,
Bagmati, Gandaki, Koshi and Sudurpaschim are likely to surpass last year’s
growth achievement – 5.29 per cent, 4.92 per cent, 2.72 per cent and 3.21 per
cent, respectively.
In the last FY 2024/25, Madhes’
growth rate was 4.43, Lumbini's 4.27 and Karnali's 5.25 per cent. The
performance of Madhes and Karnali is estimated to have significantly
deteriorated.
Agriculture largest contributor
According to economic activities
classified by industry, agriculture is expected to remain the largest
contributor to provincial economies in all provinces except Bagmati this year. In
Bagmati, wholesale and retail trade is projected to contribute the largest
share.
“Trade — which holds the
second-largest share at the national level — is also expected to rank second in
both Koshi and Madhes,” read the report.
Similarly, real estate services
are projected to make the second-largest contribution in Bagmati. In Gandaki
and Karnali, public administration and defence are expected to rank second in
terms of contribution, while in Lumbini and Sudurpashchim, education services
are projected to hold the second-largest share.
On the other hand, administrative
and support services are expected to contribute the least in Koshi, Gandaki,
Lumbini and Sudurpaschim provinces, while mining and quarrying activities are
projected to have the lowest contribution in Madhes, Bagmati and Karnali
provinces, estimated the NSO.
Electricity and gas sector to see
highest growth
In terms of the sectoral growth
rate, the electricity and gas sector is likely to witness the highest value
addition growth rate in Koshi, with 23.76 per cent. This sector is also
estimated to be top achiever in Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini and Madhes as well,
with 22.88 per cent, 23.9 per cent, 9.18 per cent, and 10.91 per cent growth,
respectively.
However, in Karnali and
Sudurpaschim, financial and insurance services arre estimated to achieve the
highest value-added growth, with 8.40 per cent and 7.98 per cent, respectively.
Disparities in per capita GDP
As in the growth performances,
Madhes is estimated to witness the lowest per capita GDP.
The NSO informed that, according
to the preliminary estimates, Madhes’ per capita GDP in US dollars will remain
at 934.
On the contrary, Bagmati is
expected to record the highest per capita GDP of US$ 2,644.
Likewise, the per capita GDP is
estimated to reach US$ 1,651 for Gandaki; US$ 1,410 for Koshi; US$ 1,208 for
Lumbini; US$ 1,170 for Sudurpaschim; US$ 1,108 for Karnali; and US$ 934 for
Madhes.
At the national level, per capita
GDP is estimated at USD 1,513 for the current fiscal year.
Based on this estimate, only
Bagmati and Gandaki provinces are expected to record per capita GDP above the
national average, while the remaining provinces are projected to remain below
it.
Published in The Rising Nepal daily on 21 May 2026.