Kathmandu, Apr. 29
The government has projected that the
economy of the country will expand by just 2.27 per cent this year breaking the
high growth trajectory of above 6 per cent for the last three consecutive
years.
"Severe impact of the coronavirus pandemic
in major economic sectors and internal and external measures applied to check
the spread of the virus will have repercussion in the growth of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) of the country," said the Central Bureau of
Statistics (CBS).
The statistical body under the National
Planning Commission has prepared the growth estimates based on the first seven
to nine months of the current fiscal year 2019/20.
"The economy will grow by 2.27 per
cent at the constant price in the current FY, however, the estimates were made
on the basis of the impacts of the pandemic on hotel, restaurants and
international transportation since the situation in the recent future is
unknown," said the CBS. But it said it was hopeful that the other economic
sectors would revive gradually from mid-May.
This growth is the lowest since FY 2015/16
when the economy reached the lowest ebb of 0.01 per cent in the recent times
due to the devastating 2015 Gorkha earthquake and the Indian blockade in 2015
and 2016.
In the last fiscal 2018/19, the economy
grew by 6.75 per cent and in 2017/18 by 6.35 per cent.
Growth rate of all three economic sectors
is projected to shrink by more than half while the tertiary sector will
nosedive as it was the first sector to be affected by the pandemic.
The primary sector, secondary and tertiary
sector are estimated to grow by 2.5 per cent, 3.36 per cent and 1.99 per cent
respectively this year against the growth of 5.1 per cent 8.1 per cent and 7.29
per cent in the last fiscal.
Primary sector includes agriculture,
forest, fishery, mines and excavation. It is largely based on the production of
rice which is reduced by 1 per cent compared to last year's 9 per cent growth. Likewise,
the obstruction created by the lockdown will also disturb the growth of this
sector, said CBS.
Secondary sector includes industries like
construction, manufacturing, energy and water. Most of the industries except for
a few essential good producers are completely halted since the implementation
of lockdown on March 24.
Tertiary sector comprises of service
businesses like wholesale and retail trade, hotel, restaurant, transportation,
financial intermediaries and real estate.
The share of the agriculture, industry and
service sectors will be 28.20 per cent, 13.72 per cent and 58.08 per cent
respectively.
The GDP in consumer price is Rs. 3767
billion.
Hotels are hit hard
According to the CBS, hotels and
restaurants are the most hit sectors among all as they are estimated to witness
a loss of 16.30 per cent compared to the growth of 11.06 per cent last year.
Other sub-sectors that are expected to
catch negative growth are transport, storage and communications, construction
and manufacturing.
However, electricity, gas and water
subsectors will grow by 28.75 per cent. Health and social work, fishing, and
public administration and defence will see better growth, higher than previous
year.
PCI $1,085
The per capita income (PCI) of Nepali
citizen is estimated to reach US$ 1,085 (Rs. 126,018) in the current fiscal
year.
Current PCI stands at $1,032.
The NPC has projected that the PCI will
reach $3,222 (at the current exchange rate) before 2030 – the year when Nepal
will be a middle-income country from the developing one.
Likewise, the gross fixed capital formation
is Rs. 1060 billion.
Remittance is Rs. 716 billion with 19.01
per cent ratio to the GDP.
Annual growth rate of major economic activities (in per
cent)
Category
|
2017/18
|
2018/19
|
2019/20
|
Agriculture
and forestry
|
2.72
|
5.05
|
2.48
|
Mining
and quarrying
|
8.88
|
8.91
|
-0.69
|
Manufacturing
|
9.17
|
6.82
|
-2.27
|
Electricity,
gas and water
|
9.64
|
9.15
|
28.75
|
Construction
|
10.02
|
8.05
|
-0.31
|
Wholesale
and retail trade
|
12.54
|
11.06
|
2.11
|
Hotels
and restaurants
|
9.77
|
7.33
|
-16.30
|
Transport/storage
& communication
|
4.65
|
5.90
|
-2.45
|
Financial
intermediation
|
6.38
|
6.18
|
5.15
|
Real
estate and renting
|
5.24
|
6.12
|
3.25
|
Education
|
5.02
|
5.11
|
4.88
|
Health
and social work
|
6.33
|
6.75
|
7.07
|
Source: CBS.
Published in The Rising Nepal daily on 30 April 2020.