Kathmandu, Dec. 9
With 22
per cent of the world population and the largest reserves of fresh water in the
Himalayas, the South Asian region has an immense potential for growth and
development. However, it is one of the poorest and least integrated regions in
the world. The Per Capita Income (PCI) is low here with just US$ 8,000 (on
Purchasing Power Parity) while the PCI in the European Union stands at US$
54,000 in 2022, according to the World Bank.
The
South Asia has been greatly affected by poverty, terrorism, the climate change
impacts like drought, excessive rainfall, glacier melting and glacial lake outbursts,
and low intra-regional trade.
Four of
the eight countries in the region are under the category of the Least Developed
Countries (LDCs). While the Maldives graduated in 2011, Bhutan is set to
graduate to the 'developing country' category from December 13 this year, Nepal
and Bangladesh will have their status upgraded in November 24, 2026. However,
Afghanistan's future is still bleak with prolonged political instability caused
by terrorism, war against terror and geopolitical interventions.
Considering
the backwardness of the countries in South Asia, the leaders from seven
countries in the region had decided to establish the South Asian Association
for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1985 with the aim of promoting welfare of
the people and improving their quality of life, accelerating economic growth,
social progress and cultural development here, and creating opportunity for
people of the region to live in dignity.
The
regional platform was created by seven countries in the South Asian region -
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Later,
Afghanistan was added to the block in 2007.
But the
SAARC that includes two nuclear powers – India and Pakistan – and the world's
largest population (India) is facing an existential crisis as it has failed to
hold its 19th Summit since 2016 and transfer the leadership of the
organisation. Nepal has been the chair of the SAARC since 2014, when Kathmandu
hosted the 18th SAARC Summit.
While
India, the largest member country in terms of population and land area as well
as in trade has shown apathy to the regional mechanism, other member countries
are silent in confusion. The 2016 SAARC Summit was to be held in Pakistan, and
Nepal was supposed to handover the chairmanship to the former.
Hostage
of Indo-Pak Tensions
The
SAARC process has become hostage to the souring relations between India and
Pakistan. The two nuclear powers have fought multiple wars since their
independence in 1947.
The
2016 SAARC Summit scheduled to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, in November
that year was postponed and later canceled as several members of the
organisation boycotted it citing heightened tensions between India and
Pakistan. Initially, India had decided not to take part in the summit accusing
Pakistan-based militants of the attack on an Indian Army Base in Uri of Jammu
and Kashmir that killed 19 Indian soldiers. Later, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Afghanistan and Sri Lanka also expressed their inability to attend the summit.
Likewise,
in a message issued on the occasion of the 36th SAARC Charter Day in
2020, the then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli of Nepal and the then Prime
Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan called for the organisation of the SAARC
Summit.
In response,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicating Pakistan, said that the
effectiveness of SAARC would increase only if "terror and violence" could
be ended.
India
has been presenting same cause as a major obstacle to participate in the SAARC Summit.
According to the SAARC charter, SAARC Summit or other strategic decisions
should not be taken even if one of the member states abstains from it. A
unanimous decision is required for that.
On the
other hand, Pakistan has been saying that India is the main reason for the
obstruction of the SAARC process. In January 2022, when India said that there
was no progress in removing the obstacles seen in organising the SAARC Summit,
in response, Pakistan said that the short-sighted thinking of the big country
in the region has hindered the development of the regional organisation and made
it ineffective.
According
to some experts, the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectorial
Technical and Economic Cooperation) and the BBIN sub-regional mechanisms are
being used as per India's desire to keep Pakistan out.
Moreover,
the preference of India has shifted its focus towards global forums like G20
and BRICS rather than South Asia. The direction of its foreign and trade policies
has turned towards powerful countries and less attention has been paid to regional
platforms and mechanisms, said Vijaya Kant Karna, former Ambassador and expert
in foreign affairs.
Potential
Wasted
Former Minister
for Foreign Affairs, Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, said that the failure to hold summits
for almost eight years and the inability to hold discussions among the leaders
of the region on other occasions has increased the risk of SAARC's failure. "This
is an organisation with an immense potential of growth and progress but its
moving towards being ineffective. It is unfortunate that the conflict between the
two members (out of eight) has posed a risk of derailing the entire SAARC
process," he said.
Meanwhile,
due to the increased inactivity in the region, discussions on SAARC were
minimised in other multilateral and regional forums of the member countries.
However,
the regional challenges have not been minimised. Tens of millions of people are
in poverty, terrorism couldn't be curbed, and economic cooperation has remained
poor among the members since long.
Similarly,
expansion of infrastructure and communication network is another area of
cooperation. Road and communication infrastructure could be developed at the
sub-regional level through BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) network, and
expanded to the entire region in the near future. In addition to promoting
business in this area, roads and communication will also contribute to the
development of relations at the people's level. The cooperation of the
countries of this region is likely to help in achieving Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) as well.
Since
all political leaders of the SAARC member countries agree on the fact that the
roads, transmission lines and information and communication technology are
instrumental for the national as well as the regional growth, the regional
platform should be reactivated to enhance cooperation in these areas so that a
common fight could be fought against poverty and terrorism.
Extensive
cooperation among the members of the SAARC is also needed in the areas of
fighting the climate change, natural disasters and pandemics, said the experts.
At the
recently concluded United Nations Climate Conference (COP28), Prime Minister
Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' demanded that rich and industrialised countries
should compensate Nepal for the suffering and disasters caused by climate
change. If the SAARC institutionally and its members are united in the issue,
it will be easier to gather the necessary international support to reduce the
risks caused by the climate change and to help the people who are affected by
disasters occurring due to climate change.
Poor
Regional Integration
The
SAARC is probably the least integrated regions in the world in terms of
regional trade and investment in the world. Its intra-regional trade is only
about 5 per cent while SAARC's nearest neighbour, the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN), does 25 per cent of its total trade in the same region.
On the other hand, the situation of the European Union is the best in the world
with 50 to 70 per cent trade of the member countries happening within the
region.
Selling
the products in the nearest markets reduces the cost of transporting the goods
thus lowering the price of the product.
According
to former President of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (FNCCI), Pradeep Kumar Shrestha, SAARC is not working as per its
objectives which has had a negative impact on the commercial sector as well.
"A
special visa was arranged for business leaders when visiting member countries,
but now it has ceased to be effective," said Shrestha, who has been the
vice president of the SAARC Chamber of Commerce as well as the Confederation of
Asia-Pacific Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CACI). He expressed worries over
the shifting focus of regional politics and diplomacy away from business.
After a
six-month-long embargo on Nepal, when it was weakened by a powerful earthquake
in 2072, India's intentions had also been widely doubted. On the one hand,
there is no comparison of India in solving politics even in international
trade, and on the other hand, the neighbouring countries are less sure about getting
the desired support from India and are more suspicious of suffering from
India's dominance.
Businessmen
of neighbouring countries are of the opinion that if India can show some
generosity, some problems will be solved. Former FM Gyawali also maintains that
India should not let the motion of regional cooperation weaken and exhibit
greater generosity. However, he stated that dialogue among the members should
resume to initiate this process.
Not
Dead Yet
The
SAARC has many structural problems. Its eight member states are vastly
different in terms of population and country size. India with a population of
1.42 billion and the Maldives with a population of about 400,000 are placed
here. Similarly, from democratic countries to monarchies and Islamic
extremists, the Taliban, are here. In such a situation, some problems will
arise in order to advance SAARC without any problems. Yet, there is now a necessity
to find a solution to these problems through consensus, according to the
experts.
Dr.
Dinesh Bhattarai, foreign affairs expert said that the SAARC was not dead yet
but is in ventilator. He said that the relevancy of it has further increased as
its credibility as a regional organisation has been established at various
global forums.
The
regional organisation was about to be revitalised during the COVID-19 pandemic
in 2020 when Indian PM Modi held a virtual meeting with the leaders of the
member countries and proposed to establish a fund to combat the pandemic. All
the governments of the member countries took it positively and agreed to move
forward with the project.
Foreign
affairs expert Dr. Nishchal Nath Pandey said that although formal SAARC has not
been active, track-2 of South Asia has kept the SAARC spirit alive. Through
seminars and publications, SAARC has not died down. "The apex bodies of
SAARC are active, South Asian Studies is gaining popularity in world-renowned
universities so it's no longer just a government organisation," he said.
Although
the 2014 summit abolished some agencies to reduce the operational costs of
SAARC, major agencies in different areas are still working. They include the
South Asian University (New Delhi), the South Asian Regional Standard Organisation
(Dhaka), the SAARC Agriculture Center (Dhaka), the SAARC Tuberculosis and
HIV/AIDS Center (Kathmandu), the SAARC Cultural Centre (Colombo), the SAARC
Energy Center (Islamabad), the SAARC Disaster Management Center (New Delhi),
the SAARC Development Fund (Thimpu) and SAARC Arbitration Council (Islamabad).
Dr.
Bhattarai said that when the SAARC has completed 38 years despite doubts and
animosity between or among some of its member countries, it will revitalise
itself in the days to come.
However,
as SAARC chairman, Nepal has not done as much as it should, said Karn. "It
seems that Nepal has failed to find a solution through silent diplomacy and through
constant communication with the members," he said.
Through
all the missions in the regional countries as well as through the permanent
representative in New York, dialogue and discussion about SAARC could be
carried forward, he said.
If the
SAARC conference cannot be held in Pakistan, it is necessary to dialogue among
the member countries and find an alternative. It is necessary for Nepal to make
efforts for that in the coming days, said former FM Gyawali.
He said
that at the meeting of the SAARC foreign ministers held at the sidelines of the
2020 United Nations General Assembly, Nepal had proposed to find a new venue
for the SAARC summit, but the agenda couldn't be move forward. According to
Gyawali, India should be more open for the regional dialogue and Nepal should
initiate dialogue with the member countries to find a solution to the
stalemate.
Published in The Rising Nepal daily on 10 December 2023.
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