Economy to grow by 2.1 per cent
Kathmandu, July 23
The World Bank
has proposed a three-phase actions model to move the economy to resilience.
The relief, restructuring
and resilient recovery phases are believed to support the government’s efforts
in providing relief and building a resilient recovery.
Terming them ‘actionable
measures for the government’, the multilateral donor in its Nepal Development
Update 2020 published on Thursday said that the present crisis would require a
multi-faceted response given the wide-ranging impact.
According to
the report, the government should allow temporary social security, tax and
rental and utility deferrals, provide wage subsidies and suspend import duties
for critical supplies, and announce a time bound subsidised emergency financial
package for priority sectors like tourism and agriculture in the relief phase.
It also
recommended supporting local levels in the distribution of relief packages,
including seeds and fertilizers to the farmers and centrally procure
agriculture produce to respond to food security needs.
Expansion of
the reach and coverage of mobile banking and digital financial services,
promotion of digital literacy and establishment of information technology
centres, simplification of investment approval process, and provision of fiscal
incentives are suggested for medium term ‘restructuring’ phase.
Likewise, for
the resilient recovery, policy measures like investment climate reforms
including the foreign direct investment, increasing access to finance through
digital services, long-term insolvency and out-of-court procedures, and
guidelines to support environmental management are suggested.
While the government has adopted various relief measures to
contain the pandemic, reduce the impact on households and provide economic
support to the most vulnerable firms, the report highlights the importance of reforms
to support a resilient recovery.
WB’s Senior Economist Dr. Kene Ezemenari said that for a
resilient recovery and inclusive growth, economic support measures to firms and
workers in the informal sector would be important.
“Incentives to
agribusiness-based and forest-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs),
with a focus on returnee migrants and youths, could help increase employment
and food security. Inclusive growth could be further promoted through
entrepreneurship support programmes and grants to small and medium enterprises,” the author of the update said in a
web-launch programme of the report.
Speaking at the event, Finance Minister Dr. Yuba Raj
Khatiwada said that the country needed to address the crisis with macroeconomic
and sectoral policy focused on fiscal stability, financial sector stability, a
digitally-oriented green economy and resilient public services.
The government through its budget for the current fiscal
year 2020/21 and Nepal Rastra Bank through the Monetary Policy have laid out
the plans to support the SMEs, agri-businesses and rehabilitate the industries
severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.
WB’s Country Director for
Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka Faris Hadad-Zervos said that for Nepal to emerge
stronger from the crisis, it was important to adapt quickly to the new reality.
“We are encouraged to note the early start made by the
government with the development of Nepal’s relief, restructuring and resilience
plan and are committed to work together with multilateral development banks and
development partners in helping the country build back greener and better,” he said.
Economy to grow by
2.1 pc
The
World Bank estimated that the economy would contract sharply to 2.1 per cent in
the current fiscal year against the government’s projection of 7 per cent.
The
impact of COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdown will make a serious impact on
the economy, despite efforts of the government to curb the economic fallout
from the crisis, said the multilateral donor.
According
to it, transitioning
the economy from the relief stage through to restructuring and resilient
recovery requires a strategic approach to get the country back on a sustainable
and inclusive growth path.
As
per the report, economic activity in the tourism sector will remain weak and
remittances inflows will be moderate. Supply chain disruptions will keep
industrial and agricultural production low.
“Low
economic activity and oil prices will also keep imports low and below the
pre-crisis levels, leading to a projected narrowing of the current account
deficit to 6.5 per cent of GDP. Lower imports will continue to limit revenue
collection,” read the report.
However,
fiscal measures announced as part of the FY2021 budget, including a revision of
custom duties, will provide some support to the budget as spending levels on
relief and recovery efforts remain elevated, said the bank.
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