Kathmandu, Jan. 11
The
World Bank forecasted on Wednesday that Nepal will achieve an economic growth
of 5.1 per cent in the current fiscal year 2022/23.
The
government through its budget for this year has announced to achieve the growth
of 8 per cent. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank has estimated the growth
at 4.7 per cent for this year, lower than that of the WB.
The
projection of the multilateral donor for Nepal is below the South Asian average
of 5.5 per cent.
"Growth
in South Asia region is projected to slow to 5.5 per cent in 2023 on slowing
external demand and tightening financial conditions before picking up slightly
to 5.8 per cent in 2024. Growth is revised lower over the forecast horizon and
is below the region’s 2000-19 average growth of 6.5 per cent," read a
report 'Global Economic Prospects' of the WB.
However,
the future prospects are not much encouraging as the report maintained that
Nepal's growth would go down to 4.9 per cent next year. But the WB has said
that there would be robust growth in India, the Maldives and Nepal.
According to the report, the economies of
the South Asia region continue to be adversely affected by shocks emanating
from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including higher food and energy prices,
and by the tightening of global financial conditions as central banks in the
region and elsewhere act to fight high inflation.
The WB
said that global
growth is slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest
rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine.
Given
fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development—such as
higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a
resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions—could
push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more
than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.
Published in The Rising Nepal daily on 12 January 2022.
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