Q4 growth of FY 2025/26 estimated at 4 per cent

Kathmandu, Oct. 14

The economic growth rate in the last quarter (Q4) of the last Fiscal Year 2025/26 has been estimated at 4 per cent, registering an increase from 3.3 per cent in the third quarter (Q3).

According to a report published by the National Statistics Office on Wednesday, the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices is provisionally estimated to have grown by 4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025/26 compared to the same quarter of FY 2024/25.

The growth was mainly driven by increased activities in electricity generation, transmission and distribution; deposit mobilisation and credit disbursement; non-life insurance premium collection; and accommodation and food services, among others.

The NSO estimated positive growth in all but one of the 18 industrial classifications, with public administration and defence being the exception. This sector witnessed a negative growth of 0.12 per cent.

However, compared to the fourth quarter of FY 2024/25, the growth rate in the fourth quarter of FY 2025/26 is estimated to have remained moderate due to lower government expenditure and modest growth in domestic industrial and agricultural production. GDP growth in the last quarter of 24/25 was 4.8 per cent.

The fourth quarter includes the economic activities from mid-April to mid-July 2026. Annual GDP growth rate for FY 2025/26 is estimated to sit at 3.85 per cent, and the size of the economy is projected to reach Rs. 6609 billion by mid-July this year.

In the past five fiscal years, the economy witnessed the highest growth of 9.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY 2021/22 and the lowest rate of -1.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2022/23. Mostly, the growth line zigzagged between 2.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent.

In the final quarter of last year, electricity and gas sector growth is estimated to remain the highest, with a 24.36 per cent increment. It is followed by the financial and insurance sector with 9.07 per cent, accommodation and food with 7.84 per cent, information and communication with 7.66 per cent, transportation and warehousing with 6.81 per cent, and wholesale and retail trade with 5.97 per cent.

According to the NSO, the growth in the wholesale and retail trade sector, which accounts for the second-largest share of the economy, appears to have been driven by an increase in domestic production and imports of goods for trade.

“The growth rate of the agricultural sector, which makes the largest contribution to the economy, is provisionally estimated at 1.35 per cent. Modest growth in agricultural and forestry production appears to have had a positive impact on the sector’s gross value added,” read the report.

However, seasonally adjusted GDP growth at basic prices is estimated at 1.54 per cent for the Q4 of the last year. 

Published in The Rising Nepal on 15 October 2026.